Developing an Early Warning System for Monitoring Drought and Ethnic Conflict for Poverty Alleviation in Tana River District, Kenya

Abstract

Internal and external conflicts have increased in African countries since independence and especially after the cold war. Whenever civil war occurs, it has often led to destruction of lives and property, leaving behind it a great trail of human suffering. In Kenya, where ethnic conflict has occurred in Rift Valley, Coast and North Eastern provinces, the impact has been devastating. Ethnic conflict in Tana River District can be traced back to 1948, which has resulted in the retardation of socio-economic development. It is against this background that the current study seeks to examine the timing, causes, consequences and the best practices to deal with drought and ethnic conflict. Specifically, it aims at developing an early warning system to monitor drought and ethnic conflict. The study will be carried out in the three divisions of Bura, Galole and Garsen in Tana River District, Kenya. This will be a collaborative study between the African Institute for Health & Development (AIHD), the government of Kenya and the communities. It will utilize participatory tools of data collection (historical timelines, seasonal calendar, problem analysis flow diagrams, focus group discussions and key informant interviews). An interviewer-based questionnaire will be administered to 685 respondents drawn from the three divisions. It is envisaged that minimizing the effects of drought and tensions that lead to ethnic conflict would significantly contribute to poverty reduction. Peace and security in this district would allow people to engage in agricultural and livestock production, and other income generating activities with minimal worries of possible attacks. The study is expected to contribute to the government’s and its development partners’ drought preparedness plans and conflict resolution not only in Tana River district but also in other areas with similar characteristics.